🧮 Run the Numbers
FIRE BTC #32 - What gets measured gets managed
If your goal is financial independence, how do you know you’re making progress?
For anything worthwhile, measurable feedback is essential. What you choose to track—and how you track it—can have a meaningful impact on how quickly (or whether) you reach your goal.
FIRE is no different. At its core, FIRE means owning enough compounding assets to cover your expenses perpetually (or at least long enough to support the lifestyle you want for the rest of your life). That makes two things non-negotiable: knowing your expenses and knowing what your savings portfolio is worth.
Whether you follow the 4% rule or some other framework, the point is the same: you need a clear, measurable benchmark to compare where you are to where you want to be. Without that, you’re just flying blind.
Running the numbers gives you that visibility. It makes the abstract tangible and turns a distant dream into something you can chip away at day by day and decision by decision.
But it can also be a trap.
Measure the right things, and you’ll stay on track. Measure too much or measure the wrong things, and you’ll mistake motion for progress. You’ll spend more time building spreadsheets than building freedom.
FIRE folks and bitcoiners both love to “run the numbers.” And rightly so…bitcoin offers radical transparency, and FIRE requires it.
But measurement should serve a purpose. When it becomes a crutch—adding complexity just to soothe uncertainty—it stops being useful and starts getting in the way.
🧭 Direction Over Perfection
Most mornings, I run my numbers over coffee.
It’s not a long ritual. I open a spreadsheet I built years ago and track what matters:
Where cash is flowing in and out
What my savings portfolio is worth
What my expected expenses are over the coming month
I don’t bother with budgeting apps or tracking every credit card charge. I follow the cash. Because in the end, that’s what matters—actual movement of money. I keep my cash balance lean on purpose so I can push more into bitcoin, compounding my way toward financial independence faster.
The spreadsheet calculates my trailing 12-month expenses and dynamically updates my FIRE number using the 4% rule. It also shows my progress toward that number over time. It takes about 10 minutes and gives me a sense of where I am and if there are any immediate adjustments to make.
This is about direction, not perfection. I want to see the shape of my progress and make sure the trajectory is right. I’m not trying to capture every last penny, because a $10,000 difference in my FIRE target isn’t going to change the outcome in any meaningful way.
The real story shows up in the trendlines. That’s what matters. The Pareto Principle applies: a small number of inputs drive most of the results, and the rest is noise.
🦋 When Measurement Becomes a Distraction
But it’s easy to go too far.
FIRE folks often overcomplicate their systems. They track every purchase to the penny, optimize for every loyalty point, stress over every theoretical tax scenario, and obsess over how many basis points they can shave off a mortgage rate. It feels productive, but a lot of it is just spreadsheet theater. Complexity for the sake of comfort.
Bitcoiners fall into similar traps. We love data. We pour over on-chain analytics, minor shifts in exchange balances, realized price, MVRV, hash rate trends—as if decoding these metrics will unlock some secret about what happens next.
But that’s not what bitcoin is for.
Bitcoin gives you the rare ability to run the numbers at a system-wide level. You can verify the monetary policy. You can audit the full ledger. You can hold your own keys and validate your own wealth with no third party. It’s radical financial transparency that is unmatched in history.
And yet, many get distracted by metrics that offer zero edge and little signal. Why? Because sitting with uncertainty is hard. Measurement soothes that discomfort, even when it doesn’t actually move us forward.
This is the trap: mistaking information for insight and activity for progress.
💡 Use It, Don’t Worship It
Running the numbers should be a tool, not a shield from discomfort.
Measure the right things to clarify your path. Use it to spot inefficiencies, course-correct, and keep yourself honest. But don’t let it turn into a false sense of control.
Track what matters. Simplify the rest. Trust your process.
FIRE and bitcoin both demand discipline, long-term thinking, and a tolerance for uncertainty. Running the numbers can support that…or it can distract from it.
What gets measured does get managed.
Just make sure you’re measuring and managing the right things.
That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!
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Until next time,
Trey ✌️